Is There Global Cooling?

(the antitheses of global warming)

Welcome to my website where I will try to give you the answer to the question "is there global cooling?" As you are well aware there is a huge effort around the globe to counter the alleged impact of mankind on the world's climate. If in fact mankind will cause the seas to rise appreciably by causing CO2 induced global warming then certainly let's do something about it. But, what if global warming is not what they say it is? What if the world's temperature is headed in the opposite direction? Global temperatures increased for twenty years from the late 1970s to 1998 but have actually been cooling the last eleven years. The global warming and subsequent cooling were even predictable due to hundreds of years of historical trends and observation of the impact of variations in solar activity on global temperature.

Did you know that the Roman Period and Medieval Period (Middle Ages) were both several degrees warmer than today's temperature. The world then cooled at least four degrees from 1450 to 1850. This period was called the Little Ice Age (a period of glacial advance, the same glaciers that are in retreat today)? These temperature variations were not caused by man. They were caused entirely by natural forces.

Quick facts about the US and global climate

Temperatures are in decline

*According to the US National Climate Data Center 2008 temperatures in the USA were below the 115 year average for most of the country link.

Global temperatures according to the UAH for June 2009 were only .001 deg. C above the 30 year average, in other words "normal". Where is the global warming? link

*NASA announced that 2008 global temperatures were significantly cooler than 2007, the coolest since 2000 and below the average of the last 30 years link

*temperatures that were once rising are now falling rapidly according to the NOA link, 1998 was a warm year but the eleven years since have each been cooler, global temperatures have dropped an average of .6 degrees F in this period. link All four world agencies responsible for tracking global climate show temperature decreases since 2002 link

*Global temperatures cooled in five of the last seven decades even though CO2 levels increased steadily throughout this period. link

Polar ice extent is near normal

*Antarctica has 90% of the worlds ice and had the most sea ice ever recorded at the end of 2008, over one million square kilometers above the average maximum. The global sea ice extent today (combined sea ice at both Poles) is nearly the same as the average of the last 30 years. link link link View today's Antarctic sea ice extent compared to the 1979-2007 average (National Snow and Ice Data Center) link. View today's Arctic sea ice extent compared to the 1979-2007 average link , (Nansen) link

The oceans are cooling

*According to NOAA the earth's oceans have been cooling since 2003 and may be entering a 30 year long cooling period (La Nina). See ocean temperatures link. Then compare today's ocean temperatures to only a few years ago link

There are fewer violent storms

*Violent tornadoes are in decline in the US link. Global hurricane, typhoon, and cyclone activity are now at a an all time record low according to Florida State University link

Solar activity is changing

So what has changed? CO2 concentrations continue to increase yet temperatures have been falling since 2002? Polar ice is growing. Violent storms are declining. One reason may be that solar activity is at the lowest level in almost a Century. link link See what the sun looks like with and without sunspots link View today's photo of the sun and note the continued lack of sunspots link In the past periods with fewer sunspots were ones with cooler temperatures.

Europe and North America have recently experienced a score of record low temperatures. So where is the global warming we are preparing for?

Is a carbon cap and trade system that would raise hundreds of billions of dollars each year for the government necessary to prevent global warming if in fact the global warming was caused by natural forces such as the Sun and that many scientists are now becoming skeptical of the theory of man made global warming (AGW)? link It appears to me that the fear of global warming is looking more and more like the Y2K scare of the late 1990s.

If you have doubts about the conventional beliefs of global warming and want to learn more please do read on.

*the use of information on this website is unrestricted and can be reproduced without permission.

Geoff Pohanka

6/09

geoff@isthereglobalwarming.com

p.s. If you want to see most of the concepts below in a single film, then watch this documentary (film)

Read Lord Monckton's speech at the Climate Change Conference in Washington DC link about the question of man made global warming

Climate thought starters

*The earth today is not the warmest it has ever been. Global temperatures were as much as 2 degrees centigrade warmer more than a few times including the Medieval and Roman Periods. chart 1, chart 2

*For most of the past 10,000 years the earth was warmer than todays temperatures. link

*2000 years of global temperature data, note the current global warming starting in the mid 1700s, well before man started producing much CO2 link

*The warmest year ever recorded in the USA was 1934, link. The coldest, in the mid 1970s, a period when some scientists and most of the press said the earth was heading toward the return of glaciation. link link link

Warmest years in the USA from 1900 to today link 1934 1998 1921 1906 1931 1999 1953 1990 1938 1939

*five of the ten warmest years since 1900 were before 1940!

*the warmest decade was the 1930s link

*US temperatures have only risen .2 degrees F from 1940!

*Using just the US rural temperature data (not including temperature sensors near urban areas due to the urban heat island affect), today's US rural temperatures are cooler than those of the 1930's. (David Archibald

*Global temperatures declined from 1945 through 1979, yet his was a period of rapid industrial expansion and increasing CO2 production throughout the world. If CO2 and temperatures are linked, why did temperatures fall? link

*Global temperatures have only increased in two of the past seven decades even though CO2 concentrations continued to increase throughout this period link

*according to the US Climate Data Center which tracks weather in the US from 1,200 stations, temperatures in 2008 were just +0.2 degrees F above the 115 year temperature average. December '08 was -0.9 degrees below the average, 35th coolest December in 114 years of record keeping. link

*The US Climate Data Center reported that the Spring of 2008 was the 36th coolest in the USA in the 114 years of record keeping link

*a survey of US weather stations shows that 80% of them are poorly maintained and located and have a warming bias of several degrees. link

*global temperatures mysteriously jumped when nearly 50% of all global weather stations (many in rural areas) stopped recording climate in the early 1990s. link

*the 20th Century temperature increase was .6 degrees. In 2007, world temperatures declined .7 degrees according to the 4 most respected sources of temperature tracking, HadCRUTT. RSS. UAH, GISS This is the fastest cooling ever recorded. The 20th Centuries global warming of .6 degrees was reversed in a single year.

*global temperatures have been cooling since 2002 link

*earths temperatures are not constant. There were 23 periods of cooling and warming in the past 500 years with the average cycle being 27 years long. There were two cooling and warming periods in the past 100 years alone. 1880-1915 was a period of cooling 1915-1945 was a period of warming 1945-1977 was a period of cooling 1977-1998 was a period of warming 1998-the present, it has been cooling, all related to changes in solar activity and the Pacific El Nino and La Nina cycles link

*The increase in CO2 as a percentage of the atmosphere since 1750 is only 1/10,000th, or (100ppm). link

*CO2 is a trace gas. It is less than 4/100ths of one percent of gases in the atmosphere. link

*of the 186 billion tons of CO2 that enters into the atmosphere yearly only 3.2% is from human activity, the rest is from the oceans, volcanoes, and decaying plant matter. link

*there was 15 times more CO2 in the atmosphere than today during the Ordovician-Sulurian glaciation, 5 times more during the Cretaceous-Jurassic glaciation, and more also during the Permain glaciation. link

*CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have been as much as 25 times what they are today. Current CO2 concentrations are among the lowest in the past billion years. link

*After the Medieval Period the world cooled 4 degrees centigrade, causing the "Little Ice Age". This was a period of glacial advance from the mid 1400's to mid 1800's. Then the world began to warm once again. Many of the glaciers that are now retreating were ones that grew during this "Little Ice Age".

*The fastest global temperature change ever recorded was from 1696 to 1732. Temperatures declined 2.2 degrees centigrade, which is 4 times the rate of temperature change and three times the speed of the .6 degree change in temperature of the hundred years of the 20th Century.

*Antarctica's represents 90% of the world's ice and 70% of its fresh water. Antarctica's current ice volume is the largest ever recorded (2008)

*Antarctic sea ice extent in 2008 exceeded 1979 in ten of eleven months in 2008. Average ice extent was over 17% larger than 1979s level. Sea ice thickness was also larger. link

*The October and early November 2008 the Arctic sea ice grew at the fastest rate ever recorded (43,804 square miles per day) link

*Arctic Sea ice is increasing at a record rate in 2008, early 2009 link

*While it is true there has been generally less Summer Arctic Sea Ice in the past two decades this loss has been entirely offset by the growth of ice in the Antarctic. When you combine both poles, there has been no net reduction in global ice! link link

*The volume of Antarcic ice in 2008 was averaging one million square kilometers more than normal. Summer ice melt was 40% below the average. link

*The 2008 Summer Arctic ice melt was 9% less than the record of 2007. 1,700,000 square miles of Arctic ice did not melt this year. link

*There is evidence that the Artic sea ice completely melted at least four times before man first walked the earth. Tropical turtle fossils have been found in the Arctic, proving this area was once much warmer than today. link

*On Oct 15, 2008 Arctic sea ice had grown 29% larger than in the previous year. link

*Arctic sea ice was 220,000 square miles larger in Nov '08 than Nov '07link

*Greenland's temperatures today are cooler than those of the 1940's link

*Greenland's temperatures were warmer in the 1940s than today according to NASA GISS link

*while it is true that there has been some warming in the northern hemisphere in the last part of the 20th Century the southern hemisphere has shown no increase and has actually been cooling. link

*recent studies have shown that winds have a larger impact on polar ice formation than does temperature. Changes in winds and sea currents at both poles have caused an increase in ice formation, even though there has not been significant temperture variation in this period. link

*while there has been minor warming of the northern hemisphere in the late 20th Century the southern hemisphere actually was cooling during this same period. link

*There has been global warming in the second half of the 20th century but the temperature peaked in 1998 and it has been cooling since. Four of the five most active solar cycles since the 1600's were in this same period of warming. Active solar cycles historically have caused warming tempertatures.

*The winter of 2007-2008 had the most snow cover in North America, Asia, and Siberia in over 60 years.

*China had its worst winter in over 50 years in the winter of 2007-2008 link

*Many areas of the world experienced a harsh winter in 2007-2008. Quite a few had record low temperatures and it snowed in Baghdad the first time in a century (link), and Saudia Arabia experienced the coldest tempratures in 20 years (link)

*The Winter of 2007-2008, had most ice between Greenland and Canada in 15 years. link

*If all the floating ice in the world melted, what would happen to the sea level? Answer: The sea would not rise but could go lower, since ice has more volume than water. The melting of floating sea ice can not raise sea levels, no matter how much ice there is. link

*If land based ice, such as the 650,000 cubic kilometers of ice on Greenland melted the seas would rise considerably. But, in even the worse case, only one tenth of one percent of Greenland's ice could possibly melt in the 21st century. It would 10,000 years or more to melt under the worst scenarios. (since most of Greenland is well below freezing much of the year, and most likely this melting would be interrupted by another Ice Age, don't worry, Greenland's ice won't melt like some say it will). link

*When the glaciers of the ice age melted the sea levels only rose one meter per century. If Greenland was to melt at the same rate today sea levels would only rise 4 inches per century according to Prof Morner. There is no possibility of coastal flooding from global warming. link

*There was considerable ice melt in Greenland during the Midieval warm period (this is when the Vikings colonized it), yet sea level did not rise higher than the sea level found today! How do we know this? The Tower of London was built at sea level in 1150 AD, the sea is the same level today as depicted in paintings from the time it was built. link

*The warmest temperatures ever recorded in Greenland were in the 1930's. link

*If all the land based ice melted, yes the seas would rise, but there would be about the same amount of liveable land than there is today since Antarctica and Greenland would become habitable. (but dont worry, this won't happen).

*Solar winds are at 50 year low according to NASA, who says that the sun's output is at the lowest level ever recorded by modern instruments (announced on 9/23/2008) link

*Solar activity as measured by the number of sunspots (RI), Solar Influences Data Analysis Center S.I.D.C., shows recent dramatic changes in the sun. From 1991 to 2007 the average yearly sunspot total was 1,099. In 2008 there were only 55.4 sunspots, a reduction of 95%. link

*solar Geomagnetic Ap Index is the lowest ever recorded, from the start of tracking in 1932. This correlates with past cooling. link

*CO2 is a trace gas, it is less than 4/100's of 1% of all gases in the atmosphere. Of the 186 billion tons of CO2 that enters the earth's atmosphere every year only 6 billion tons are from human activity, the rest is from natural causes (decaying vegitation, volcanic activity, and the oceans). Man only contributes 3% of CO2 in the atmosphere. If CO2 truly caused the Greenhouse Effect there would have been a catastrophe long ago. link

*without greenhouse gases global temperatures would average 4 below zero F instead of the 59F we now enjoy.

*CO2 only makes up 1/10,000th more of the atmosphere than in 1750, an increase of 100ppm. link

*There is very little CO2 in the air. Of each one million molecules in the atmosphere only 380 are CO2.

*The CO2 level in the atmosphere is 380 ppm. Before industrialization it was 270 ppm. CO2's increasing volume in the atmosphere has grown only 1/10,000th since the beginning of industrialization. Plant growth slows as CO2 levels below 220ppm and plants stop growing at CO2 levels of 150ppm. link

*water vapor makes up 95% of all greenhouse gases. CO2 is only 3.6% of greenhouse gases, and since man only contributes 3.2% of all CO2 into the atmosphere, less than 1% of all greenhouse gasses come from human activity. Dr. Michael R. Fox

*the oceans hold 50 times more CO2 than the atmosphere, and it is at equilibrium. If this rate continues atmospheric CO2 can not rise substantially because the sea will absorb most of it.

*people get sick at CO2 concentrations above 5,000ppm. There are no scenarios that CO2 will get anywhere near this high, no matter how much the CO2 is produced burning fossil fuels. Many say the high limit is 600 ppm, with nature absorbing the rest. Fossil fuels will run out before CO2 concentrations will get over this level.

*during one ice age the atmospheric CO2 was ten times the level of today. Clearly CO2 did not stop this ice age from occurring. Either CO2 doesn't have much impact on climate or the sun's reduced energy caused the ice age, or both.

*plants grow up to 50% faster with CO2 levels of 1000ppm. They grow 15% faster with todays level of CO2, which has led to higher crop production.

*Greenhouses use 1,000 PPM of CO2 to increase plant growth. Higher concentrations of CO2 increase crop production.

*Plants in arid regions of the earth need less water to grow due to higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.

*the oceans hold 50 times more CO2 than the atmosphere. This CO2 is given up to the atmosphere as water warms and it absorbs more CO2 as it cools.

*Warming periods in earth's history have been ones where mankind has largely prospered due to higher crop yields. Cooling periods are ones where mankind has historically suffered, from lower crop yields, hunger, and disease.

If people had a choice between cooling and warming, wouldn't most chose warming?

*There was global warming in the late 20th Century (these temperatures are now falling). But it was no hotter than earlier periods, it was just less cold. The Summer's high temperatures were no warmer, the low temperatures were just not as low. The global warming was not on the high side of temperatures, it was on the low side of temperature ranges. (Patrick Michael)

*Land temperatures have increases (but this is probably the result of urban growth which have enroached on sensors) link. Upper atmosphere and sea temperatures have not increased. If CO2 was causing the higher land temperatures the seas and upper atmosphere should also be warming, but they are not. (Patrick Michael)

*Solar Cycle 23 which will soon be ending will be the longest solar cycle since 1796 and solar cycle 24, which is now beginning, will most likely be very weak. This is a strong indicator that the earth will be cooling and this period will last at least 30 years or more. (this is based on 250 years of observing the relationship between solar output and temperatures.)

*using temperature date from the mid 1700's and early 1800's until the present, the current solar activity should cause temperature declines up to 4 degrees from the high in 1998. The temperature increase in the 20th Century was only .6 degrees, so the expected cooling will be much more severe than the warming.

*The Polar Bear population is at a record high in 2008, five times more than in the 1950's. No matter how you count it, there are more polar bears today than at any time in recent memory.

*Over 600 polar bears are legally hunted every year.

*Polar Bears mate on land. Their favorite food besides seal meat is blueberries (also found on land).

*Polar bears, during the normal Summer Arctic ice melt, either migrate to land or further north where there is no melting.

*In the last 10,000 years Polar Bears have survived several warming periods when the Arctic had severe Summer melting, and most liklely melted entirely.

*Polar Bear populations are thriving due to the abundance of seals, their primary food source. So long as seal populations thrive, so will the Polar Bears.

*the species name for Polar Bears is Ursus Maritimus, Latin for sea bear. Polar Bears are excellent swimmers and have been known to swim as far as 200 miles. link

*There is a long and historic correlation between solar cycle length and global temperature. Short sycles have historically led to warming periods and longer cycles to cooling periods on earth. Solar cycle length has more impact on temperature than solar cycle amplitude (height). Solar cycles average 10.7 years in length but few are this long, most are either shorter than the average or longer. The solar cycles in the latter part of the 20th Century have been shorter ones, and thus the warming. 4 of the 5 shortest solar cyles since the 1600's were in the second half of the 20th century. But the current cycles are different. Cycle 23, which is now ending, is 12 years five months long (as of Oct 2008) and is likely to be well over 13 years long. The last time we had a solar cycle this long was 1796 when the world was plunged into the Doltan Minimum, a period of very cold temperatures between 1796 and 1830. The three solar cycles during that cold period were 13.6, 12.3, and 12.7 years long. If the past is a predictor of the future, solar cycle 23 and a weak solar cycle 24 will lead the world into another cold period similar to the Dalton Minimum. This period will last at least 30 years. Where is the global warming?

*The yearly average number of sunspots per year from 1991 through 2007 were 1,361, (according to the S.I.D.C.). Through September of 2008, we are one pace for only 56 sunpots for the entire year. Where is the global warming?

*Changes in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 has always followed changes in global temperatures and not visa-versa. The Oceans are huge collectors of CO2, in warming periods they release CO2 to the atmosphere and in cooling periods the oceans absorb more CO2. Maybe warming caused by increased output from the sun has helped cause some of the higher concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. A cooling earth will cause more CO2 to be absorbed by the oceans and may impact CO2 density in the atmosphere. Where is the global warming?

*today's atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is among the lowest in the last 600 million years. Where is the global warming?

*There has only been a 1/10,000th increase in atmospheric CO2 since the beginning of the industrial age. It is hard to think that this small concentration will melt the worlds ice. Suppose CO2 dropped by an equal amount, would it cause an Ice Age? I don't think so! Where is the global warming?

*global CO2 concentrations in the late Ordovician Period were 12 times what they are today (4,400 ppm) yet this did not stop an ice age from occurring. Where is the global warming?

*"To get to the truth of what drives global climate one must first separate politics from science." Where is the global warming?

*with all the evidence above, doesn't the theory of global warming appear similar to the Y2k fear? Where is the global warming?

*The number of hurricanes per year that hit the US 1901-1950 were 1.94, and only 1.41 from 1951-2001, 28% less. The 1901-1950 hurricanes were also more powerful on average. But property damage from coastal storms has increased due to overdevelopment, higher population density, and falling land levels such as at Gavelston TX, where land has sunk over 4 feet due to settling and fossil fuel extraction. (Patrick Michael) Where is the global warming?

*The oceans are not likely to become acidic from higher concentrations of CO2 anytime soon. It would take 3,500 years for the oceans to become even slightly acidic at current rates. link Where is the global warming?

*Coral reefs thrived during the Ordovician Era when there was ten times more CO2 in the atmosphere. They also thrived when global temperatures were +10C warmer than today. Link Where is the global warming?

Summary

*there has been global cooling for the past eight years as global temperatures have been declining

*There are signs of global cooling since there is a record amount of sea ice in Antarctica and temperatures have been declining in most of the continent for the last fifty years

*Solar activity is the lowest level of the space age. There are 400 years of solar records. Whenever the sun is less active there is global cooling. There is no deviation.

*There were three ice ages with more CO2 than today. CO2 does not have much impact on global temperatures, does not cause global warming or global cooling.

*The PDO has moved into a cool phase, which can lead to global cooling.

*If the past is a predictor of the future the earth is headed into a 30 year period of global cooling. Global cooling is much worse for mankind than global warming. Many more people die from the cold than heat. Crop yields will be reduced and global hunger increased from global cooling.

What drives the climate?

Sunspots have been used for hundreds of years to measure solar activity. The more sunspots the higher the solar output and visa-versa. Cooling periods on earth have occurred when there were fewer sunspots and warming periods (such as the second half of the 20th Century) when there were more sunspots.

The sunspot average from 1900 to 1949 was 576 annually, and from 1950-1999 it was 876, an increase of 52%.

With the current solar cycle the sun has become less active once again with fewer sunspots, suggesting that the long period of warming has come to an end and a period of cooling is beginning (based on a long historic correlation between solar activity and global temperatures).

The links below are important in that it proves there is not scientific consensus about causes of global warming and what the counter arguments are. The links that follow demonstrate that there are significant changes in solar activity that will have an impact on the global climate.

NASA announces that natural, and not man made forces, play a significant role in climate change

Sept 23, 2008 NASA warns that solar wind is the lowest in recorded history and the suns reduced output could result in changes in the earth and solar system

Oct 1, 2008, NASA announces the sun could have the fewest sunspots in a century, this has led to global cooling in the past.

NASA, noting changes in the sun, says solar cycle 25 could be the weakest in centuries

Ultra long solar cycle 23 and the possible consequences on global temperature (Joseph D'Aleo)

What are sun spots?

David Archibald: Solar Cycle 24

David Archibald Part 1

David Archibald Part II

David Archibald Part III

David Archibald Part IV

Archibald, impact of a very long solar cycle 24, 25 on global temperatures, they will drop 2C